I've included their 10-year chart of "market value change" - showing the market peaked in early 2006 at approximately $740,000.
Today's value, according to the chart, is around $590,000 - a BIG drop.
But if you believe in technical chart analysis, the bottom is still a ways off.
A fundamental idea of technical chart analysis (a.k.a. "charting") is the statistics concept of "regression to the mean". Basically, "regression to the mean" says that, in time, things tend to return to normal. No matter if you look at rolls of the dice, flips of a coin, stock market manias, or real estate bubbles. Most things don't stray from the norm for too long. And when they do, they'll need to do the opposite to balance things out.
For chart technicians, the "mean" is represented by the historic trend line. This is a straight line that touches as many low points on a chart as possible. This line is often called "support", because at that level a market bottom is usually seen.
Below is the same chart with the historical trend line drawn in black.
According to chart analysis, for today's market to be at the historical trend line, current values would be around $350,000 - a long way from today's value.
But in reality, a market does not have to go down to get back to the historical trend line. Instead, it can go sideways through time until reaching that trend line. To get to the trend line with today's values, it will take approximately 6 years.
Will the Key West residential real estate market go lower? Or will we go sideways? I suspect a bit of both. Lower, since there is a wave of foreclosures about to hit a saturated market. And sideways since interest rates are rising.
No matter what, if you believe in the laws of statistics, probability, and mathematics, we'll return to the mean - one way or another. And that means prices won't be rising for a long time.