According to a local realtor's blog, Gary Thomas writes that much of the real estate market is still overpriced and, like the doomed ship Poseidon, will likely fall further.
One property Thomas mentions was listed in 2005 for $1 million. Today it is listed at $395,000. Amazingly, even at this price, he believes "it isn't even worth that much".
Here is an excerpt from his post dated January 17, 2008:
What you can't see are the daily entries of new listings, price reductions, contingent sales, pending sales, solds, and expirations. But I can. And the number of Price Reductions that are happening is alarming. There are not just a few. There are a lot--everyday. It's like the sellers are finally coming to the realization that we are near the end of the first month of our sales season and that if they have not been getting any positive action on their property that maybe, perhaps, probably their sales price is too high. "Duh!" to quote Homer Simpson.
Yesterday for example one Broker/Owner reduced the price on four separate over-priced properties the Broker/Owner owned and this time included language that each individual may become a "Short Sale" requiring lender approval (shorthand for loan forgiveness) to get the deal accomplished. I specifically recall showing one of these properties in the early summer of 2005 when it was priced just around $1 million. Today it was reduced to $395,000. And it isn't even worth that much. I think the Broker/Owner has finally capitulated.
Yet there are still Realtors listing properties at prices that are out of touch with reality. You will note that I normally recite the price per square foot when I discuss a particular property. That is so the reader can compare other properties to make an evaluation of the real value of the particular property I am discussing. There are a few properties that are so well located and so perfectly done that they may qualify for an astronomical asking price, but the emphasis is on the word "few".
It will be interesting to see how the asking prices shake out during the next three months. The properties that are selling right now are following the traditional Key West sales pattern for years gone by: high end, very low end, and very well located and well priced Old Town homes. The stuff in the middle just languishes. If the market cycle theory holds true more and more sellers will capitulate and that, in turn, will drive more and more prices downward.