Thursday, May 10, 2007

Documenting the Crash

The news is getting worse and worse for the US housing market.

If you are not convinced scan the headlines and peruse the stories at the housing crash blog located at That site aggregates news stories from a wide range of reputable sources.

Here are a few of the headlines that struck me as noteworthy:
  • April Foreclosure Filings More Thank Double Over 2006

  • Subprime Problems Trickle Up Food Chain

  • Prices Fall in Rich New York Suburbs Once Immune to Slump

  • Rental housing glut seen

  • Realtors ignore 1989, pretend "first" national price decline

  • Tip of the Iceberg on subprime loan debacle

  • Perfect storm of debt in Florida

  • Foreclosures through the roof in FL

  • Owners who can't sell are driving down rents
So how has the national real estate meltdown effected Key West?

According to, (" is an online real estate service dedicated to helping you get an edge in real estate by providing you with valuable tools and information") the market, based upon sale amounts, is dropping quicker in Key West than the rest of the US.

(click the above chart to see a larger view)

Zillow's numbers are probably not completely accurate - since they are dealing with a somewhat limited data set. For historical reference, the following chart shows how Zillow records value trends for the 33040 zip code, the city of Key West, Monroe County, the state of Florida, and the United States. If this chart is accurate, Key West appreciated far ahead of the United States and Florida, and is now falling quicker than them.

(click the above chart to see larger view)

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Anonymous said...

Yes, I sit here with a house valued at 500,000 that I paid 699,999, when are you going to get over your obsession with documenting the boring decline of all of our life savings and cover something of interest?

We are more than the real estate crash. Are you? And can you tear yourself away from reporting the bad news?

Cayo Dave said...

Anonymous - Do you write to the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and the rest of the journalism world complaining about what they report? Haven't you heard the expression "Don't shoot the messenger"?

Cayo Dave said...

I just came across this information, for those interested:

"In its latest forecast for the real-estate market, the National Association of Realtors projected that existing home sales will fall 2.9% this year to 6.29 million, compared with its previous forecast of a 2.2% decline.

The drop-off for new home sales is expected to be more severe. The NAR said new home sales are likely to fall 18% to 864,000, compared with the prior forecast of a 14% drop.

The NAR also continued to forecast the first annual decline in the median national existing home price since it began keeping records in the last 1960s"

Cayo Dave said...

Also, former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan this week repeated that the chances of a US recession this year is 1 in 3.

Cayo Dave said...

I have been writing about the Key West housing market since the beginning of 2006. I will continue to do so. Here is a post I wrote in February of 2006 that is worth rereading:

Anonymous said...

> Alan Greenspan this week repeated that the chances
> of a US recession this year is 1 in 3.

Of course that could have just as accurately been reported as "According to estimates from Alan Greenspan, the odds are 2 to 1 against a recession this year...."

Cayo Dave said...

True true, anonymous. As has been said, statistics is the one science where two conclusions can be made from the same numbers.
But the 1 in 3 chance is greater than before...that is my point. Before, Greenspan had put the chances of a recession at 1 in 10.
Thank you for your comment!