Thursday, December 27, 2007

Florida Housing Bad - Predicted to Get Worse

According to a widely watched index, Florida leads the nation in falling home prices. And if forecasts are correct, 2008 will be even worse.

The S&P/Case Shiller Home-Price Index released yesterday showed Florida home prices have declined 12.4% over the past 12 months - worse than any other state in the country. Meanwhile, the Housing Predictor website yesterday released its forecast for Florida, predicting that in Miami "as Housing Predictor forecast last year, the market is falling and has become the epicenter of America’s housing crisis. Values have fallen by as much as 40% already and more deflation is in store for the market."

Here is a chart of their Florida housing predictions for 2008:


So things look bleak for the Florida housing market overall. Unfortunately, the data does not show the Florida Keys.

If you want to get an idea of what your house is worth in Key West, take a look at comparables - sales that have recently occurred in your neighborhood.

Here are the sales over the last 4 weeks in Key West:
  • 1116 Whitehead St - Single Family - Old Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $302.30
  • 1501 Olivia St - Single Family - Old Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $411.52
  • 1116 Elgin Ln - Single Family - Old Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $629.95
  • 1402 Olivia St 1 - Condo/Townhouse - Old Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $325.00
  • 3708 Duck Ave - Single Family - New Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $275.16
  • 1326 10th St - Single Family - New Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $351.44
  • 2401 Harris Ave - Single Family - New Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $321.77
  • 800 Georgia St - Single Family - Meadows - Price Per Sq Ft. $445.28
  • 3930 Roosevelt Blvd W311 - Condo/Townhouse - New Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $390.82
  • 1437 12th St - Condo/Townhouse - New Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $227.22
  • 1328 Seminary St A - Condo/Townhouse - New Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $358.02
  • 2601 Roosevelt Blvd 207C - Condo Townhouse - New Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $290.82
  • 1445 Roosevelt Blvd 411 - Condo/Townhouse (with Transient License) - New Town - Price Per Sq Ft. $593.09

Multiply your home's square footage with a comparable sale's "price per sq. ft." and you'll get some sense of its current value.

And if you are looking at buying, hopefully you'll get a sense of where fair value is.

Like this post? Let us know:

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why is it you won't report the accurate information from the MLS? Are you that afraid to tell the truth or do you wish to manipulate the true facts to suit your own purpose? Here are the solds you conveniently 'forgot' to mention:

SOLDS-KEY WEST–11/28/07-12/28/07

913 Georgia Street – Single Family - The Meadows – price per sq. ft. $1,026.39
ON THE MARKET 1 DAY!!!!!

3841 N. Roosevelt Blvd. #412 – Condo - New Town – price per sq. ft. $662.49
ON THE MARKET 57 DAYS!

3841 N. Roosevelt Blvd/ #512 – Condo - New Town – price per sq. ft. $1,178.33
ON THE MARKET 56 DAYS!

3841 N Roosevelt Blvd #132 – Condo -New Town – price per sq. ft. $1,236.55
ON THE MARKET 56 DAYS!

3841 N Roosevelt Blvd #228 – Condo - New Town – price per sq. ft. $832.72

1445 S. Roosevelt Blvd. #411 – Condo – New Town – price per sq. ft. $593.00

615 Mickens Lane – Single Family - Old Town – price per sq. ft. $523.90
ON THE MARKET 1 DAY!!!!!!

1500 Atlantic Blvd. – Condo -Key West Beach Club – price per sq. ft. $611.89
ON THE MARKET 49 DAYS!!

409-A Emma Street – Truman Annex – price per sq. ft. $705.22
ON THE MARKET 75 DAYS!

615 ½ Duval Street – Old Town – price per sq. ft. $549.53
ON THE MARKET 165 DAYS!

620 Thomas Street – Truman Annex – price per sq. ft. $773.99
ON THE MARKET 217 DAYS!


Sure, you can quote the low end of homes sold recently due to distress sales, short sales, foreclosures, etc. but the true high end buyer is out there looking, seeing and writing contracts. The time is right to buy and the market is showing great signs in improving. Many high end properties are under contract to sell and many more are being shown to prospective buyers from up north and from overseas.

The public is too intelligent to buy into your gloom scenerio. Why don't you just realize that there are a few of us with access to the MLS that you don't have and can pull up the REAL statistics of properties for sale in Key West.

Isn't it time you give up your crusade to demean the Realtors of the island? Just sour grapes from a blue collar worker who will always rent, never buy. If you don't like your situation, either move or get a real paying job - there are lots of them advertised in the Citizen lately if you have an education and experience that are paying nicely. Spend your spare time on something useful that pays instead of blogging your life away!

Anonymous said...

Why is it you won't report the accurate information from the MLS? Are you that afraid to tell the truth or do you wish to manipulate the true facts to suit your own purpose? Here are the solds you conveniently 'forgot' to mention:

SOLDS-KEY WEST–11/28/07-12/28/07

913 Georgia Street – Single Family - The Meadows – price per sq. ft. $1,026.39
ON THE MARKET 1 DAY!!!!!

3841 N. Roosevelt Blvd. #412 – Condo - New Town – price per sq. ft. $662.49
ON THE MARKET 57 DAYS!

3841 N. Roosevelt Blvd/ #512 – Condo - New Town – price per sq. ft. $1,178.33
ON THE MARKET 56 DAYS!

3841 N. Roosevelt Blvd #132 – Condo -New Town – price per sq. ft. $1,236.55
ON THE MARKET 56 DAYS!

3841 N. Roosevelt Blvd #228 – Condo - New Town – price per sq. ft. $832.72

1445 S. Roosevelt Blvd. #411 – Condo – New Town – price per sq. ft. $593.00

615 Mickens Lane – Single Family - Old Town – price per sq. ft. $523.90
ON THE MARKET 1 DAY!!!!!!

1500 Atlantic Blvd. – Condo -Key West Beach Club – price per sq. ft. $611.89
ON THE MARKET 49 DAYS!!

409-A Emma Street – Truman Annex – price per sq. ft. $705.22
ON THE MARKET 75 DAYS!

615 ½ Duval Street – Old Town – price per sq. ft. $549.53
ON THE MARKET 165 DAYS!

620 Thomas Street – Truman Annex – price per sq. ft. $773.99
ON THE MARKET 217 DAYS!


Sure, you can quote the low end of homes sold recently due to distress sales, short sales, foreclosures, etc. but the true high end buyer is out there looking, seeing and writing contracts. The time is right to buy and the market is showing great signs in improving. Many high end properties are under contract to sell and many more are being shown to prospective buyers from up north and from overseas.

The public is too intelligent to buy into your gloom scenario. Why don't you just realize that there are a few of us with access to the MLS that you don't have and can pull up the REAL statistics of properties for sale in Key West.

Isn't it time you give up your crusade to demean the Realtors of the island? Just sour grapes from a blue collar worker who will always rent, never buy. If you don't like your situation, either move or get a real paying job - there are lots of them advertised in the Citizen lately if you have an education and experience that are paying nicely. Spend your spare time on something useful that pays instead of blogging your life away!

Cayo Dave said...

Anonymous:
Strange - the ones you mention are showing as: "For statistical purposes only" in the MLS database I see.

Anonymous said...

They are still solds - why not give an accurate picture of the market instead of hiding the facts?!

Cayo Dave said...

I'm not buying it - those don't look like actual sales and that is why the MLS has a note attached with it saying: Entered for statistical purposes
Am I to believe that someone paid over $1000 per square foot for a place in the meadows?
We are in the deepest real estate recession in our lifetime and people are buying condos for over $1000 per square foot?!!
Those numbers look suspicious - but if I'm wrong I'll gladly retract the post.

Anonymous said...

Why would a realtor put a listing in the MLS if it wasn't accurate? It isn't ethical and guess who will monitor the situation and levy not only a fine but a suspension? The Key West Association of Realtors (KWAR) as well as the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR). Every listing is subject to inspection and KWAR is infamous for calling for the signed listing agreement or the sold information to verify the accuracy of the listing. Not to mention the fact that many times a seller will opt out of the MLS (which must also be done on a FAR form available from KWAR that MUST be included in the listing information file at the appropriate office. Now, many times a seller and a buyer are just at the right place at the right time (an agent may have the right buyer for his new listing yet to be put in the MLS) or through 'word of mouth' from one agent to another. The required time to enter a listing in the MLS is 3 days from signing; therefore, it is possible to sell a property BEFORE is makes it to the MLS.

If you have questions, contact KWAR or your local Realtor who would be more than happy to assit you in your buying or selling of a property. However, any other info is strictly held in confidence. Do the math - the solds are there. And since your ignorance of the high end market is obvious - DON'T POST UNLESS YOU CAN BACK UP YOUR INFORMATION WITH FACTS!!

rhett said...

Wow-"Just sour grapes from a blue collar worker who will always rent, never buy. If you don't like your situation, either move or get a real paying job - there are lots of them advertised in the Citizen lately if you have an education and experience that are paying nicely." I am using your numbers here!
A real paying job?? What kind of salary can you find in the citizen can afford 660-1000 a sq foot. Most agree that your mortgage should not go over 33% of your monthly income, using your numbers (a 1750 sq condo at 662.00 per square foot with a great interest rate and insurance should cost you about 6500.0 a month x3 to account for that 33% mortgage to income ratio)...the citizen has plenty of jobs for a quarter a million a year?
I have a question who is going to make your eggs, pick up your garbage, and fix your car? Does that person not deserve to be able to buy a condo, heaven forbid a house? Let them eat cake!

Cayo Dave said...

rhett - WELL said. Talk about callous elitism!

Anonymous said...

Seems like the ignorant and uneducated run rampant in this blog of Key West. I have a real job here in Key West that is NOT in the tourism industry and it pays well - I am salaried and make enough for the house I am buying in the next month didn't own before either - saved enough for a s nice downpayment by working just 1 well-paying job!), my boat and a trip abroad each year, max out my retirement/401K contributions, have no credit card debt; can you say the same?! Why can't you? I am about to own a home - why can't you? I am college educated and have a nice job with security, health care and retirement here in Key West not with the local or county govt. - why don't you? Is it because you won't try? Or are you just not bright enough to see that there are a LOT of nice paying jobs lately in the paper - FKAA, Keys Energy, some govt. contractors, even the college has had some decent paying jobs for someone with a college degree and experience. And there is a shortage of well qualified people here to do the job - can you do something about your current situation or do you just like to grovel in your misery? The MLS is accurate - why are you misleading others? Why would a realtor out and out lie in the MLS? Don't you think KWAR would get quite upset and the realtor would either face a hefty fine or lose their license if information was inaccurate? Why are you afraid of - that someone has actually made a nice living here in Key West and you can't figure out how they do it? Just ask around - there are a lot of us here and we are sick and tired of the complaining from smucks like you. Quit whinning and either do something of shut up already - we are tired of your attitude. You and your negativity are not welcome here in our paradise.

Bill said...

Can we step aside from the shouting and get an answer from someone about the precise meaning of the statement in the MLS that certain sales are shown "for statistical purposes only". Does that mean that the sale in question was not an arms-length transaction? If it was a true arms-length sale and the check cleared and the deed issued and so on, why would the MLS attach such a statement to the record of that sale?

Anybody out there have an answer?

Anonymous said...

For Statistical Purposes only means that the transaction was not listed in the MLS. A seller may not have wanted to list their property through the MLS - it is their choice. However, to give an accurate view of the market and for later statistics on sales and market trends, the realtor has included the information AFTER the sale has concluded. There is nothing misleading or false in such information and the transaction is still legally binding. However, the timeline of the property being an active listing, going under contract, pending as financial considerations have been met and finally sold have been kept from public viewing due to the wishes of the seller. Nothing unethical or illegal and it happens quite a bit especially if either of buyer or the seller wishes their identity to be kept from public knowledge at this time.

rhett said...

I feel as though I am beating a dead horse with this but the numbers listed by the first anonymous commenter does reflect that the buyer of a condo needs to clear 225,000.00 a year (completely explained). That’s a great deal of money for the average home owner. Calling people ignorant and lazy when you do not even know who they are does not really attest to your intelligence or character, but that’s the route you choose to take.
Now I do have to admit that the slight gloom and doom point of view that this blog tends to have does nothing to raise or stabilize the current value of real-estate in the Key West area, but the issue still exists that average hard working everyday people should be able to buy a home if they save and scrimp. If cost of living continues to rise, and lets say the real estate market rebounds with the change of office, the disparity between the working class and the land owners will continue to grow. If the guys picking up your garbage can not afford to pay his rent then he is going to move someplace he can afford to pay rent (which for some people say good riddance) but now who is going to pick up your garbage? You? A similar thing occurred in Key West in the 80's and in the late 40's. The problem is that this economic disparity is felt more strongly in smaller non-industrial isolated communities like Key West. As for education, I hold bachelors degrees in Sociology and Psychology, and a Masters in I/O,and I am a home owner. Let’s all try not to jump to conclusions, this is a great forum that allows intelligent people to bring different perspectives to light, who knows maybe someone might even change my mind.

Bill said...

A few thoughts about how Key West would/will survive if living costs continue to rise so rapidly...The market will find an equilibrium. It may not be the equilibrium that any of us find ideal, but it will find it. For example, if it is too expensive for waiters to live here, they will continue leaving until employers pay them enough to stay. The employers will have to raise their entree prices enough to pay these costs, and the restaurant-goers will have to pay the higher prices, or else they will have no waiters. You can see this in some aspects of Key West life already. There are no big bookstores because the market does not support them. There are no good furniture stores for the same reason. This is not to say that there "should" not be these stores. It is simply to say that people aren't willing to pay what is necessary for them to survive.

This is not a free market rant. I've worked as a server, I know what that's like. It's just to say that the money has to come from somewhere: from the customer, from the workers in the former of lower wages (but they will be tempted to find a better paying job elsewhere), from the employers in the form of lower profits (but they will be tempted to open a business elsewhere), or from the government. And if the government provides the money, then it will have to get the money from some place--from taxes today or from borrowing money which the next generation will have to pay back later. Furthermore, if the government is the source of the money, then the government will be subject to pressures from people with inside information and influence who are capable of gaming the system. We have seen an abundance of this in KW so we know what it's like.

For me the bottom line is that no one has been guaranteed the "right" to live any place in the U.S. I may like Nantucket (I don't) or Portland, Oregon (I do), but that does not mean that I "should" be able to live there. I will only be able to live there if I can pay my way. I don't want Monroe County or the Portland City government to pay my way for me.

We're surely moving toward a different mix of economic activities in Key West. But this has been the case for the past 200 years--we have always been moving to a different mix of businesses. When was the last time Key West relied on a booming sponging industry, or wrecking, or cigar-making?

If I am forced to choose, I'll choose a dynamic marketplace over the Monroe County Commission for economic choices any time.

Just some thoughts. Happy to hear other people's ideas.

Anonymous said...

If you can't afford to live here in the Florida Keys, you'll find a way or commute from Miami. Many workers are bused in from the mainland to take jobs that offer a higher pay in Key West and Marathon than in their hometown. A two hour commute time each way is nothing – I use to commute that everyday, rain or snow, 52 weeks a year up north. And I wasn’t the only one – it’s a fact of like in the working world. We just have it luckier here. Also, $225,000 is nothing to pay for a mortgage - you will pay less than $1800 a month for a 30 year mortgage at 6.5%. That's less than most pay renting. There are several workforce housing projects going up on Stock Island, Key West, Big Coppitt and Sugarloaf by Swift and his offices that will offer homes from $170K-$289K for anyone who works in Monroe County and has an income that meets qualifications. There are programs available for first time home buyers, heroes/veterans, and anyone who has an income considered moderate income or less. These are SHIP loans for qualified applicants that give down payment assistance up to $45K at no interest payable after their 30 year note has been paid (or if they sell). With these workforce homes you have a new structure many of which are rated at 160 miles plus and hour for hurricane winds and offer extremely low taxes per year as well as insurance rates that are capped. I know of the project on Stock Island that offers homes from $239K-$289K with insurance at $1500 per year and taxes at $2400 per year. This is a win-win for everyone - the average Joe can afford to live here and with incentives to help in financing and down payment assistance he can stay and raise his family. And you average garbage worker is making over $60,000 a year here so you do the math - it works. Oh, and I have a BA and MA as well and I have a job that demands that I be college educated with experience. And yes, I work in Key West. Now back to the point - to get ahead here or anywhere you need an education. In a capitalistic society there will always be the haves and the have-nots – and neither you nor I can change that fact. Let us just help those who have the skills and education and experience local employers demand by providing workforce housing. If you want to stay, you will have just one less hurdle to jump. There are way too many incentives provided by the State of Florida, Monroe County, the Housing Authority, the local banks and the local insurance companies that are offered yet so few take advantage. And with the internet and the telephone anyone can find out how.