Key West Real Estate Freefall & Opportunity

Prices for Key West residential real estate are falling at an increasing rate. And this may mean we are closer to a bottom than the top of this wild ride. Market price trends often reverse themselves with a sharp spike. When prices are rising, the top is often marked by an even greater run-up of prices. And similarly, when the long-term trend in prices has been falling, look for a sharp spike on the downside to indicate market sentiment is about to improve.

According to the chart (above) from Zillow, prices for Key West houses, condos, and other residential real estate are showing a sharp decline since November 2008. Currently, Zillow shows "market value" for the Key West residential market at $472,000 - a 14% decline since November 2008.

Oversupply, along with a list of other problems, continues to weigh heavily on the Key West market. And much of that oversupply is from distressed sellers. Here is a map from RealtyTrak showing 219 properties that are either pre-foreclosure, bank owned, auction, or govt. owned:


Here is a look at the latest numbers from the MLS:

• 922 residential (includes single family, mobile home, condo, timeshare, 3-4 units, townhouse, duplex, and other property rights)
• 417 residential single family
• 400 residential condo & townhouse

So where is the bottom?
If you take a look at the 10-year Zillow chart for Key West, the long-term uptrend line would be at approximately $350,000. This translates into another 25% decline - if it happened in the short term. It is also possible that prices won't deteriorate to that level if enough time transpires to reach the trend line further to the right.

Here is the 10-year chart with a long-term uptrend line drawn in red.

But there is some good news.

Housing is definitely getting more affordable.


With mortgage rates now at 5% and property starting to sell for "affordable" prices (meaning less than the so-called "affordable housing" that the local developers have put up), it now may make sense to look for a place of your own.

Take a look at these numbers:

• 165 single family, condo, or townhouse properties priced at $350,000 or less


• the least expensive is a $128,500 condo at Santa Clara Condominiums (506 square feet). With a 5% mortgage and 10% down, your principle and interest payment would be $618 per month. Add on $300 per month for condo fees, taxes, and insurance and you are buying a condo in Key West for less than $1000 per month.


• the least expensive single family home is $169,900 at 3210 Eagle Ave (1032 square feet - Bank owned). With a 5% mortgage and 10% down, your principle and interest payment would be $821 per month. Add on $500 per month for taxes and insurance and you are buying a house for the same cost as rent.

Don't have 10% to put down? Call the City of Key West. They are planning to loan up to $20,000 to workers for downpayments (20 people initially).

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Blog Silence Over - Key West Chronicle Blog is Back!

Like the Day of the Dead (Dia de Los Muertos en espanol), the Key West Chronicle Blog is about rejoin the living.

No - I haven't died, left the island, or been forced to refrain from posting. My absence from the blogosphere had its reasons - none of which need to be elaborated here.


Now, though, I look forward to regularly posting again.


And to commemorate this new beginning I have given the blog a new look. New utilities will also be added. Today I have added a "Followers" box (on the right hand side) - allowing you to join Key West Chronicle Blog.


While I have much to write about, please let me know if there is anything you'd like to see written about.


In the meantime, expect entries about island life, politics, play, and the wonderful place known as Key West.

Thank you to my regular readers for your support. I promise: your patience will be rewarded.

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Bahama Village Needs Your Support

At tonight's Key West City Commission meeting, the Bahama Village Community Land Trust (BCCLT) needs YOUR support.
The Mayor of Key West, Morgan McPhearson, is attempting to undo the will of the majority of Key West citizens. We have voted, in a referendum, to lease the BCCLT 6 acres of land at the Truman Waterfront for housing, community centers, and other projects in support of one of Key West's most historic neighborhoods - Bahama Village.
Instead, the Mayor has been championing a water park. I know of no one that wants a water park.
Further, the Mayor wants to get control of the special funding that has been set up to revitalize the neighborhood.
It is a mystery why the Mayor no longer is interested in representing the will of the citizens, but it is starkly reminiscent of the County Mayor Mario DiGennaro's methods who seemed to never say no to a developer.
The Gang of Three has been broken up and mostly voted out (thank goodness), and the Mayors should read the writing on the wall: THEY ARE NEXT TO GO.
Please support the worthwhile efforts of the Bahama Village Community Land Trust and go to tonight's City Commission meeting at 6pm at City Hall.
And to Norma Jean Sawyer and the rest of the BCCLT, you have my complete support.

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Poll: Do YOU Like The Water Park Idea?

I'm still mystified by the mayor's idea for a "water park" at the Truman Waterfront.

I haven't met a local who likes the idea. The Citizen's Voice, our local anonymous rant column in the newspaper, is filled with people questioning the rational of a water park.

Who knows? Maybe it's all a move to freak out the Truman Annex crowd - something like: Put up a gate on Southard Street?! Fine! We'll build an amusement park next door!

But seriously, let's hear YOUR opinion:



If you can, let others know about the poll so we can get as many opinions as possible. And feel free to add your comments to this blog post to discuss the water park idea further.

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Key West Street View Now Available on Google Maps

Street View, a Google Maps project photo-documenting the streets of the world, is now available for Key West.

To see the images:

• Go to www.google.com/maps and search/zoom to Key West.
  
• Click the grey "Street View" button on the upper right corner of the map.
• Next, you'll see blue highlighting on the streets that have images in Street View. Click anywhere on a highlighted street to see the images Google has captured. (Also, you can drag the yellow human icon to a place you are interested in.)
• Once you see an image, navigate along the streets using the arrows overlayed on the pictures.

You never know who (or what!) you might see. And this has a few privacy advocates concerned. In response, Google has implemented a face-blur technology that prevents most people from being recognized.

Pretty cool technology.

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Make Them Pay for Sending You Junk Mail

Annoyed by the never-ending credit card offers filling your mailbox?

Wouldn't it be great to make them pay for sending you all that junk?

You can!

Inside every credit card offer is a return envelope - postage to be paid by the credit card company. Mailing this envelope doesn't cost you anything - the credit card company pays for the postage. And depending on the envelope's weight, the more you send them, the more they pay. (My research says you can send up to 70 pounds!)

Here are a few ways to increase their cost:

• Stuff the envelope with their entire bloated solicitation, and a note saying "please do not mail me anything".
• Stuff the envelope with other junk mail that you think they may be interested in: Publix fliers, Penny Savers, or fifty Cabela's catalog pages...whatever you can fit into the envelope.
• Stuff the envelope with an advertisement for your business. Of course they won't be buying anything, but the irony is sweet.
• or get nuts with the idea, like this guy, and tape the return envelope to a box with something heavy inside.

The credit card companies will likely keep sending you offers.

But maybe one day, if enough people do this, the credit card companies will relent and leave our mailboxes alone.

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Emm - What is a Waterpark?

Seriously, what on earth is the Mayor talking about?

A "world class waterpark" on the Truman Waterfront property?

What does that mean? Log flume rides? Water slides?

Am I the only one who finds the whole thing strange.

Key West is an island (meaning surrounded by water). There is certainly no shortage of water to play with/on.

Plus, there is a community pool just a short walk from the Truman Waterfront.

So what on earth is the Mayor talking about?

And what's with his poor treatment of the BCCLT (Bahama Conch Community Land Trust), Norma Jean Sawyer, and the wishes of the voters of Key West who passed a referendum granting the BCCLT a 99 year lease for 6 acres.

Norma Jean Sawyer has probably done more for affordable housing than the Mayor has. She is admirable, an asset to our community, and does not deserve the maligning Mayor McFearsome has lobbed in her direction.

Meanwhile, the budget for Key West is in critical condition under the stewardship of the Mayor. Hasn't the Mayor already cost us enough with his water play toys (aka Vandenberg). Now - who really has mismanaged funds?

If the mayor has a real problem, he should submit those details to the public.


What do you think?

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The Radiators in Concert in Key West

July 3rd may be the musical highlight of 2008 for Key West when one of New Orleans' favorite bands, The Radiators, play the Ocean Key House pier.

The Rads, as they are known by their fans, are no ordinary band - this is a top notch group that has been playing funky "swamp approved" music for nearly 30 years.

Many consider The Radiators to be one of the original jam-style bands. Their repertoire is immense - you never know what you'll hear - from originals to covers.

Expect a great show showcasing deep grooves, extended jams, New Orleans funk, and amazing musicianship.

This band is tight, fantastic live, and should be well worth the $20. I haven't been this excited since Burning Spear was supposed to play Key West (Hurricane Georges cancelled that).

If you haven't seen this band before, embedded below are a couple Radiators videos.

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Idaho Rafting

Considering that Key West is an ideal vacation destination, tourists always ask: "Where do you like to go on vacation?"


For me, I love to go to the mountains for hiking, camping, mountain biking, and white water river rafting.

One of the best trips is with this cool Idaho rafting guide service. Their location is convenient for Sun Valley and Stanley, Idaho vacations and offer some of the best overnight rafting trips on the Salmon River & Colorado River - known for excellent white water rapids and incredible wilderness scenery. These are all-inclusive trips and include camping equipment, delicious meals, and professional local guides.

They also offers single day trips - as well as a other outdoor activities including mountain biking and fly fishing (there is amazing fresh-water flyfishing on the Salmon River. The fishing guides know where to fish for the local Rainbow & Cutthrout trout).


Here are links to their various pages:

• Idaho Whitewater Rafting
• Rafting in Idaho
• Whitewater Rafting Idaho Group Trips
• Idaho River Rafting
• Whitewater rafting in Idaho
• Idaho mountain biking trips
• Idaho fly fishing guides

This year, the rivers will be especially exciting since the surrounding mountains received HUGE quantities of snow. As the snowpack melts, the rivers will swell - creating plenty of whitewater.

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Key West Hotel Bargains, Deals, & Discounts

Key West hotel rates are coming down, and this is good news for local businesses and visitors alike.

Over the past couple years, as Key West saw many hotel rooms go offline during renovations and conversions to condominiums (and hotel-miniums), room rates went to all-time highs.

Now, most of those hotel rooms are back online and rooms rates have come back down to earth.

And if you are looking for a bargain, visiting Key West this summer will save you a lot of money.

A search of discounts and deals for Key West hotels show bargains (we used http://www.keywesttravelguide.com/key-west-hotel-map.html ) look for the Key West specials and deals link with the red save tag):

• Old Town bed & breakfast inns as low as $129 per night
• Four-star Old Town resorts as low as $179 per night
• and super-budget rooms on the island at under $100!

This more than makes up for the $30 extra it will cost in gas for the average car to drive here from the mainland.

Summer is a great time to visit Key West. Room rates are low, it's less crowded, and the fishing is excellent.

Plus, the sea temperature is warm and very comfortable, at least 80 degrees, and you can snorklel, swim, and dive to your heart's content.

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