Monday, February 20, 2006

Key West Realtors Getting Desperate

How do you tell if you are in a real estate bull market or a real estate bear market? Sometimes the sales numbers are obvious enough to tell. By this measure, the Key West real estate market of homes for sale seems to have turned from bull market to bear market.
The Key West MLS has reported that the number of homes sold in the first week of the year has dropped from 54 sales to 16 sales.
But maybe more telling is the tone of voice of local realtors. Most notably is Regina E. Corcoran, a Key West realtor with a column in Key West's biggest newspaper.
In this past week's column, Corcoran urges buyers to come out of the woodwork and buy, buy, buy. Her reasoning? In her view, the downturn in the real estate market is temporary and caused entirely by post-Hurricane Wilma anxiety. She goes on to argue that Hurricane Georges, in 1998, caused a short-term disruption to the real estate market, and that Hurricane Wilma will soon fade into memory.
Corcoran has completely ignored the major reason for the bull market in Key West: interest rates. After Georges, the Prime Rate dropped from 8.5% to 4% (a period of 6 years). This has led to easy financing and a speculative environment. Now, however, interest rates are heading in the opposite direction. Since bottoming in 2004 at 4%, the Prime Rate has risen to 7.5%, a huge increase. This is precisely what is deflating the housing bubble - not just in Key West, but in many overheated markets throughout the United States.
But Regina Corcoran continues to give horrible advice in her column, encouraging people to buy any way possible. Most astounding, in her column she wrote:
True "no doc" money exists. That means if you have a pulse, good credit and a 5 percent down payment you can own a home.
Think about it, Einstein. You need 5 percent down, but nobody asks where you got the money. You could even put it on your credit card.

I don't think I need to elaborate on why buying an overpriced house using a credit card is a moronic idea.
What a shame, that realtors aren't bound by the same rules as fiduciaries.
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Sunday, January 29, 2006

Key West Real Estate Market Cooling

The Key West real estate market is dramatically cooling.
If the trend worsens, many over-extended buyers/borrowers/speculators are in for a painful time.
Was it the hurricanes? Is it tied into the national trend? Maybe it's both. Certainly the meteroic rise in Key West house prices couldn't continue indefinitely (despite the fervent real estate broker's sales pitches).
Statistics released by a Coldwell Banker Schmitt recently show that the Key West housing market has peaked for now. Dramatic increases in numbers of properties for sale and the longer time they on the market show the market is cooling, dare I say, dramatically.

Here is a snapshot of the Key West residential real estate market (2005 versus 2004):
  • Total Sales: 88 (-53%)
  • $ Volume of Sales: $78 million (-38%)
  • Avg. Sales Price: $890,000 (+32%)
  • Avg. Days on the Market: 215 (+58%)
  • Sale Price: 93 (+2%)
  • New Listings: 568 (+10%)
  • Avg. List Price: $1.126 million (-7%)
All I can say is, "Watch out below!"
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Thursday, January 19, 2006

Tom Tukey & Truman Annex Continue to Anger Key West Residents

Well, no surprise here. Tom Tukey, the president of TAMPOA (Truman Annex Master Property Owners Assn.), and his wife Joan Tukey, shocked and disgusted me last year when it was reported that they had a neighbors cat and wouldn't return it. It became a battle of wealthy vs. not-wealthy as the Tukey's aimed expensive lawyers at the less fortunate cat owner. A judge finally stepped in and ruled that the Tukeys had to return the cat to it's owner.
I'm amazed that the Tukeys had the balls to continue to show their faces on the island (they are part time residents). I couldn't be less happy with this type of new resident: who moves here and then seems to act as if their wallet gives them the right to whatever they desire. Frankly, money doesn't impress anyone in Key West with real character.
Now their desire has turned to one of Key West's streets. As head of TAMPOA, Tom Tukey has done what he had made veiled threats about at the City Commission meeting: that if he and the rest of his wealthy gated community didn't get their way with Southard Street, they would drag the city into an expensive lawsuit.
Yesterday's local press reported that he did just that and now the city of Key West will have to once again defend itself against the Truman Annex residents.
It seems now the criteria for being a resident of Key West is no longer whether the community made sense to you and if you fit in with island life. It is now simply a case of money: if you've got enough of it, you're in.
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Saturday, January 14, 2006

Spec-flation & Brewing Class War Boils Over at Key West City Commision Meeting

It's a shame what is happening to Key West. Apparently, the island isn't alone. Steep real-estate price increases, as a result of highly-leveraged investment buying, let's call it "spec-flation" (short for speculative-inflation) has many communities across the country pricing out the residents who called those places home.
Maybe no neighborhood is more greatly affected than Key West. The town is unique, mainly because it lays 90 miles offshore of mainland Florida. As a result, Key West's resources are limited to whatever can be kept on the island. And this makes for a serious problem: all real estate in Key West is unaffordable to the working class on the island, and as a result, workers are leaving in droves.
The local classified ads reveal how deep the problem has become. Alongside ads for houses for sale of at least $500,000, are columns and columns of ads from employers and businesses looking for workers. Many of the businesses have multiple openings Some seem to be advertising for nearly every position at the business.
Well, finally this has affected me. The house we live in, leased from a friend for a reasonable rent, has sold to yet another out-of-town real estate speculator who seems little interested in the community and more interested in the killing she hopes to make in the "investment". As a matter of fact, she has offered us a lease at twice our previous rent. There is no rent control. There are no safeguards. The city is utterly at a loss about what to do. Most of the houses in Old Town Key West sit empty for most of the year: trophies for someone to brag about.
Maybe the most dramatic thing is that the speculators seems to have little inkling that the market can work against them...and it will. Markets are still markets, and inevitably, regress towards the mean. But Florida being Florida, home to land swindles, time share shenanigans, and shady politics, few seem offended or mind the lessons of history.
As a community, Key West will have difficulty functioning without workers. Real estate price inflation isn't all good news for property owners in the Keys. It is also guaranteeing that costs will soar for Key West and Monroe County, and that will be passed along to property owners in the form of much higher taxes. Also, every good and service on the island will become more expensive as businesses are forced to pay much much more per employee...that is, if they can find one.
There is one community on the island that is trying to keep their neighborhood from being destroyed by spec-flation. Bahama village, home to Key West's Bahamain community, is fighting to defend it's low-income neighborhoods from their very rich neighbors in Truman Annex (a property that was once a part of Bahama Village and, to many residents, was unjustly taken from them).
Somehow the residents of Truman Annex feel it is their right to barricade themselves in, closing off the streets to the ultra-rich gated community. Problem is that there is a state park, Fort Zachary Taylor, that is accessed via Truman Annex. The Truman Annex Master Property Owners Association (TAMPOA), want the traffic to be diverted into Bahama Village, and have callously threatened the city with lawsuits should officials not cower to their demands.
Bahama village resident showed up in force at Tuesday's City Commission meeting, which began with TAMPOA attorneys threatening the Commissioners with huge lawsuits should they not go along with their demands. Fortunately, Bahama Village residents showed up in big numbers and each gave an impassioned speech about why the "Masters" should rethink things...let alone the offensiveness of including the word "Master" in their name.
When it was finally handed over to the City Commissioners, one by one, and to their credit, they lashed out at the Truman Annex leaders and lawyers. Commissioners roasted the idea that Truman Annex should be allowed to islolate itself and a part of Key West from the rest of the community. "Open the gates and let the light shine in", "It's time for Truman Annex to be a part of this community", and my favorite, was Commissioner Rossi explaining that whatever Truman Annex residents thought was paradise (a gated version of Key West), they are dead wrong and need to rethink things.
Key West is supposed to be an open community. Unfortunately, more and more, it has turned into something exclusionary.
The problems are only beginning for the City of Key West with Truman Annex. The president of TAMPOA is Tom Tukey, a newer, super-rich resident that became famous on the island last year when he and his wife were ordered by a judge to return a cat they took from Key West and brought to Maine. The Tukeys turned most Key West resident's stomachs when they wouldn't return a cat that clearly had an owner. The Tukeys hired lawyers and put the rightful owner through an awful ordeal. I'm sure the City of Key West will now see that nasty Tukey spirit pointed at them. Here come the lawyers.
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Saturday, December 31, 2005

New Year's Eve Key West

Just a quick post to wish everyone a good new year. Hoping for a quiet 2006 hurricane season (despite the fact that a new tropical storm formed yesterday...the latest on record).
And if you'll be on the island for the big celebration, have a happy Key West New Year's Eve. If not, look for us on CNN as Anderson Cooper fawns over the drag queen Sushi being lowered over the Duval Street crowd.
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Friday, December 30, 2005

Real World Key West Business Goes Bust




What a fitting end to MTV's version of the real world.

We all know that in the real real world, no one hands us a job, a free swanky pad, and an unlimited bar tab. Apparently, MTV doesn't think that a show titled the "Real World" needs to have anything based in reality.
As such, the producers of the show went as far as creating a spray on tanning business named Mystic Tan for castmembers to work at while taping the upcoming season in Key West, going as far as opening an entire business for their benefit. Many locals shrugged at the idea of needing a tanning business this far south into the Sunshine State. And from the looks of things, they had very few people through the door.

Now it appears that the whole idea had about as much sense in reality as bringing sand to the beach. The whole tanning business is gone...not a trace of it left. Here are photos of the now empty building. I wonder if they'll include Mystic Tan in the plot line. Oh wait, there isn't a plot line...at least according to court testimony by the producers of the show.



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Monday, December 12, 2005

Real World Key West Cast Works Wedding

Not sure how this fit's into the plot line, but the cast of the Real World Key West were employed to work as servers at a wedding here on the island a couple days ago.

Guests were told that the camera crew were hired by the family to film the wedding keeping the cast's identity a secret.
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Sunday, December 11, 2005

More from Fantasy Fest 2005 Key West



Last night's big parade for Fantasy Fest was nicely attended and too much fun. Maybe it was the more manageable crowd, or the good company, or the free-flowing refreshments, but I found it more enjoyable than the last few years. And the floats were very creative and funny. Many beads were tossed, and I even managed to catch few that bounced off my head.
One thing fully annoyed the crowd and me: a group of religious extremists that show up each year to yell, with bullhorns, at everyone for being such heathens. At one point, everyone started throwing beads at them, which was a light punishment for being such a party pooper.
For everything these people were condemning (drunkards, fornicators, yada yada yada), I thought it strange that pedopheliacs weren't on the list - given the church's penchant for buggery, especially with alter boys. To me, anyone yelling about how everyone should live their lives are more likely to be hiding (compensating) for something sinister.
Key West Travel Guide has posted some more excellent 2005 Fantasy Fest Key West photos
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Friday, December 09, 2005

Fantasy Fest 2005: Light Crowds for Key West's Big Event

Maybe it's no suprise, but the rescheduled Fantasy Fest has seen some very light crowds. Events are generally seeing less than half the normal attendance. For example:
  • The Homemade Bikini contest at the Hog's Breath Saloon drew only 3 contestants. Normally there would be more than 10.
  • Pretenders in Paradise, a competition of large elaborate costumes, only had 10 entries...less than a third of normal.
  • The Headress Ball had more open seats than filled.

For a Festival that has grown into something a bit overwhelming, the mellower scene reminds me of years past and, so far, has been very enjoyable. Key West Travel Guide has just posted some pictures from today's street fair. Here is the link: Key West Fantasy Fest 2005 photos

More will be added as events continue.

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Thursday, December 08, 2005

MTV Real World Key West Still Filming

Finally, Key West is celebrating Fantasy Fest 2005. Hurricane Wilma caused the event to be cancelled from it's regular schedule around Halloween. Fantasy Fest was started over two decades ago as a way to drum up business in what was typically a slow part of the Key West calendar. These days, it's a big bash, with many revelers wearing body paint for costumes and uniquely Key West events (like the Homemade Bikini Contest). The whole thing culminates with a massive street Parade which draws tens of thousands of people.

Fantasy Fest is also the biggest fundraiser for Aids Help, a local organization dedicated to "ensure and maintain a respectable and comfortable quality of life for persons living with HIV/AIDS in Monroe County". Funds are raised for the non-profit organization by candidates seeking to be crowned King and Queen of Fantasy Fest. The candidates that raise the most money are crowned King and Queen. And that brings me to the MTV Real World Key West connection. After seeing some Real World cast members surrounding the winning King at last weeks Goombay Festival, you couldn't help but wonder how did they become part of his entourage? Word is two of the male Real World cast members have been helping with Stripp's campaign and contributing money. Supposedly, they frequently accompany him - especially to anything public and film-able. Expect Fantasy Fest to be a real part of the Real World Key West, and the Real World cast to be riding on a float during the big parade.

By the way, Stripp's website credits Mystic Tan, a new Key West business created by MTV producers for the cast to work at, as a sponsor. So, did MTV buy the cast's way into the Fantasy Fest spotlight? I hope so...it's for a good cause.

Also heard on the 'coconut telegraph': cast members went to Spain when Hurricane Wilma hit, allowing producers time to fix the flooded Real World house.
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